Packerland
Guru
- 602
Medicare Supplements are in a bit of a freefall right now...I think it's the result of several factors converging all at once.
First, you've got the post-COVID pent-up demand. People delayed procedures, and now claims are pouring in—this isn't just hitting MA 's it's hammering the supplement carriers too. They simply weren't pricing for the volume of utilization we're now seeing.
Second, I think a lot of carriers underestimated the long-term cost of Medicare claims. Many entered the market in the last 10–20 years trying to buy market share, often pricing aggressively and assuming they'd ride healthier pools of business. But the reality is catching up.
Look at Allstate's numbers over 100% loss ratio... it's not just them. In my state, we have maybe three supplement carriers operating below an 85% loss ratio. Most are well north of 95%.
Part of the problem, in my opinion, is how agents are the market. Many of us who offer both MA and supplements steer the healthier folks toward Advantage plans (often for good reason), while those with chronic conditions or higher expected utilization get put into supplements. That skews the risk pool and makes it harder and harder for these carriers to maintain margins or offer competitive rates.
We are looking at a significant reset in this space. Whether that comes in the form of big price hikes, plan exits, or stricter underwriting remains to be seen—but the current path is not sustainable.
Curious if others are seeing the same trends in your states
First, you've got the post-COVID pent-up demand. People delayed procedures, and now claims are pouring in—this isn't just hitting MA 's it's hammering the supplement carriers too. They simply weren't pricing for the volume of utilization we're now seeing.
Second, I think a lot of carriers underestimated the long-term cost of Medicare claims. Many entered the market in the last 10–20 years trying to buy market share, often pricing aggressively and assuming they'd ride healthier pools of business. But the reality is catching up.
Look at Allstate's numbers over 100% loss ratio... it's not just them. In my state, we have maybe three supplement carriers operating below an 85% loss ratio. Most are well north of 95%.
Part of the problem, in my opinion, is how agents are the market. Many of us who offer both MA and supplements steer the healthier folks toward Advantage plans (often for good reason), while those with chronic conditions or higher expected utilization get put into supplements. That skews the risk pool and makes it harder and harder for these carriers to maintain margins or offer competitive rates.
We are looking at a significant reset in this space. Whether that comes in the form of big price hikes, plan exits, or stricter underwriting remains to be seen—but the current path is not sustainable.
Curious if others are seeing the same trends in your states