The golden age of Medicare is over . Humana stock plunging.

[DonP]

They cut their earnings est’s for 2024 in 1/2 . Medical usuage is soaring . This will also affect med sups big time . I expect sup rates to soar and mapd benefits to plunge in 2025.

 

[Yagents]

I don't see how they can forecast accurate utilization........ under promise and over deliver stock scenario.

And I don't see supp rates going up more then usual. Didn't for Covid, at least not with UHC in AZ.

But, you're sky could be falling. May be time to buy the stock

 

[DonP]

Your saying med sup medical utilization is not subject to the same cost pressures as mapd ? There all in the same boat . For a sales person all this is irrelevant. You still must buy the product no matter what the cost or benefits . But there could be a widening of the haves and have nots .

 

[DonP]

Crazy ain’t good if you got any size book . That means you’ll spend your whole Aep moving clients to avoid losing them . Chaos is hell on an agent with a good sized book . I know Aetna bought business this yr and will get nailed on loses

 

[DonP]

Humana said that while it would price its 2025 Medicare Advantage contract bids to reflect the high costs, it would take a balanced approach to avoid losing members.
The company's benefit ratio - the percentage of premiums spent on medical care - rose to 90.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023, higher than analysts' estimates of 89.7%.
Humana forecast an adjusted profit of about $16 per share for 2024, versus LSEG estimates of $29.10.
Humana now expects 2025 earnings between $22 and $26 per share, versus $37 per share previously.
The insurer posted a surprise adjusted loss of 11 cents per share for the fourth quarter due to the elevated costs. Analysts were expecting a profit of 15 cents per share.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/humana-forecasts-dismal-2024-profit-high-medical-costs-2024-01-25/

I remember someone saying AEP 2025 was gonna be crazy and folk acting like he didn't know what he was talking about because he doesn't have a high post count.

Oh yeah... that person was me...

This is in direct contradiction to what you posted and what I said . There going to raise premiums and cut benefits.

 

[DonP]

In the end shits hitting the fan . Maximum commissions are $610 but CO’s can give less . What the Humana articles today sound like there not pricing products to be unprofitable and if they lose business so be it . They days of buying business are over . But United never bought business and stayed disciplined.

 

[Chazm]

You guys act like this is the first time a MAPD could cut benefits. I’ve seen humana go from great, to crap, back to great again. I’ve seen it from several top companies.
Nothing new here. Nothing to see.

If anything, it’s time to buy humana stock. The whole, Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful, saying.

 

[DonP]

You guys act like this is the first time a MAPD could cut benefits. I’ve seen humana go from great, to crap, back to great again. I’ve seen it from several top companies.
Nothing new here. Nothing to see.

If anything, it’s time to buy humana stock. The whole, Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful, saying.

Stock is not near low enough . Earnings Growth could be over in mapd for a few yrs . The problem is a lot of agents got big Humana books . If they crush the plans might have to mass move clients next aep . This is a time for other carriers to poach Humana clients . Humana said they care more about margins than growing membership.

 

[sshafran]

Stock is not near low enough . Earnings Growth could be over in mapd for a few yrs . The problem is a lot of agents got big Humana books . If they crush the plans might have to mass move clients next aep . This is a time for other carriers to poach Humana clients . Humana said they care more about margins than growing membership.

I still grew my Humana book this AEP but did have a few switch out for various and sundry reasons. They need fewer options. I certainly got annoyed with them for changing benefits on a flagship plan in my area - only to introduce a new 2024 that looked just like 2023's version that they just blew up.

Moved a lot of my people to the 2024 new option but if they wanted to see other carriers I was absolutely not opposed.

Anyway, I've often said if the carriers can only have 3 PDPs then they should limit the MAPDs to a certain amount (maybe 3 per category: 3 HMOs, 3 PPOs, and 1 SNP HMO & 1 SNP PPO).

 

[DonP]

I still grew my Humana book this AEP but did have a few switch out for various and sundry reasons. They need fewer options. I certainly got annoyed with them for changing benefits on a flagship plan in my area - only to introduce a new 2024 that looked just like 2023's version that they just blew up.

Moved a lot of my people to the 2024 new option but if they wanted to see other carriers I was absolutely not opposed.

Anyway, I've often said if the carriers can only have 3 PDPs then they should limit the MAPDs to a certain amount (maybe 3 per category: 3 HMOs, 3 PPOs, and 1 SNP HMO & 1 SNP PPO).

I grew my Humana book by over 100 aep event though products were not good . I keyed on the $100 back part b people wanted . I also got a ton of referrals. The referrals had Humana so I had to sell Humana . I’m not talking about the slashing of benefits coming up as much as possible copays rising big and possibly even premiums being added on some plans . If your specialist copay goes from $20 to $60 it’s a problem . I’ll just say I see myself this aep spending 60% plus of my time with existing clients possibly moving many to other carriers if the spread between carriers is big . Now we know why Humana axed Reese . Even before all this new cms stuff getting rid of overrides no doubt humana was going to cut marketing big to agencys .